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DOW JONES     inflation forecast by goldman sachs (Hedge21)

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Hedge21     posted : 16/02/15   10:13 pm


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Christina     posted : 05/04/15   10:55 am

Goldman Sachs Research
USA: Disappointing March Employment Report
Published 09:20 AM Fri Apr 3 2015
BOTTOM LINE: Payroll job growth posted a disappointing gain in March and was revised down in prior months. The unemployment rate held steady, but on falling labor force participation.
Nonfarm payrolls -15 (5, -3)
Unemployment rate 0 (5, 0)
Nonfarm payrolls +126k for March vs GS +220k, median forecast +245k.
Unemployment rate 5.5% for March vs GS 5.5%, median forecast 5.5%.
Average hourly earnings +0.3% (mom) for March vs GS +0.2%, median forecast +0.2%.
1. Nonfarm payroll employment rose only 126k in March, falling short of consensus expectations. By sector, construction employment edged down by 1k (compared with a 6-month average gain of 29k), possibly reflecting the impact of adverse weather in the weeks leading up to the March reference week. Manufacturing employment also declined by 1k, while oil & gas-related jobs fell 10k. Within services employment, leisure and hospitality posted an anemic gain of 13k, perhaps representing payback from February's out-sized gain. The two-month back-revision was -69k, bringing the three-month average pace of payroll job growth to 197k.
2. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%, but labor force participation declined by one-tenth to 62.7%. Household employment posted a small gain of 34k. The "payroll consistent" measure of household employment—adjusting for definitional differences between the two surveys—declined by 502k, although this series is very volatile on a month-to-month basis. The U-6 measure of the unemployment rate declined one-tenth to 10.9%.
3. Average hourly earnings for all workers rose 0.3% (vs. consensus +0.2%), resulting in a 2.1% year-over-year gain. Production and nonsupervisory earnings posted a smaller 0.2% increase, ticking up to +1.8% year-over-year. The average workweek ticked down to 34.5 hours.
4. With payrolls, unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, and a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the March Current Activity Indicator is +2.7%, up from +1.9% in February
5. Our preliminary wage tracker stands at +2.1% for 2015Q1, down two-tenths from 2014Q4. The decline from Q4 was mainly due to base effects.
6. We continue to forecast the first hike in the fed funds target range at the September meeting. However, today's number adds to the risk of a later hike.
I\'m happy to receive any constructive criticism about my trades. I\'m always ready to learn more.
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